April
30, 2006; UPDATED: May 3, 2006
INCH Flight Risks
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Drew
Stafford will have the opportunity to join Buffalo's talented
core of young forwards next year. (Photo by Sam Cooper) |
Anyone with hopes that the NHL's new collective
bargaining agreement would lead to fewer early departures
from the college ranks got a rude awakening as seasons ended
in March and April.
Ten underclassmen were among those to make the
jump to pro hockey before the NCAA championship was even
played.
That number is sure to climb as we hit the NHL
Entry Draft and the league's salary cap is established for
the 2006-07 season. It leads to an anxious offseason for players
considering the leap to pro hockey, and perhaps even moreso
for the coaches who would have to fill their shoes if they
depart.
With that in mind, Inside College Hockey takes
its annual look at a collection of players who are potential
Flight Risks:
Player,
School (NHL Rights)
The
Skinny |
Mike
Eaves, Wisconsin
A coach graces the INCH Flight Risks
for the first time, and why not? There may not be
a hotter coaching commodity than Eaves, who led the
Badgers to the national championship and will spend
May guiding the U.S. entry in the World Championship.
He's already won gold at the World Junior Championship
and Under-18 Championship to go along with his Wisconsin
hardware. Add in his NHL assistant coaching experience
and although Eaves says he's happy in Madison, logic
tells us that he'll at least have an offer or two
to entertain this summer.
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Brian
Boyle, Boston College (Los Angeles Kings)
Sure, earlier this month he said he
was returning to the Heights for his senior year.
But that was before the Kings hired Dean Lombardi
to serve as president and general manager. Regardless
of who Lombardi picks to coach the club, it’s
clear the Kings will retool around younger players
like Alexander Frolov and former Michigan standout
Mike Cammalleri. Expect the Kings to make another
run at signing Boyle and giving him the chance to
stick with the big club immediately.
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Andrew
Cogliano, Michigan (Edmonton Oilers)
Cogliano had a good – not great
– freshman season with the Wolverines, scoring
12 goals and adding 16 assists in 39 games, so it
seems natural for him to spend another year in Ann
Arbor. Besides, the Edmonton organization typically
trusts its prospects to develop in the college ranks
and the team is flush with young forwards (11 of the
16 forwards on the Oilers’ playoff roster are
under 30).
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Brian
Elliott, Wisconsin (Ottawa Senators)
The Senators don’t need to rush
a goaltender to the NHL level – Ray Emery seems
ready to take the reins once Dominik Hasek’s
groin vaporizes once and for all – and Elliott
has said all the right things about coming back. Still,
he doesn’t have anything to prove at the college
level, and goalies almost universally need a year
or two of AHL seasoning. A change of heart wouldn’t
be a shock.
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Alex
Goligoski, Minnesota (Pittsburgh Penguins)
A proven scorer, Goligoski scored 39
points last season after putting up 20 points during
his freshman campaign. If there’s one squad
that isn’t looking to get any younger, however,
it’s Pittsburgh. Ex-collegians Brooks Orpik
and Ryan Whitney played significant minutes for the
Pens this season, and former Harvard standout Noah
Welch will likely make the leap to the parent club
in 2006-07. Gopher fans should have Goligoski to cheer
for at least one more season.
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T.J.
Hensick, Michigan (Colorado Avalanche)
Hensick’s immediate future has
less to do with his pro prospects as much as it does
the Avalanche organization. The Avs share an American
Hockey League affiliate with the Carolina Hurricanes,
which makes player development a dicey proposition
– just ask Edmonton about its sometimes frosty
partnership with Montreal in Hamilton, Ontario. Unless
general manager Pierre Lacroix believes Hensick can
grab a roster spot with the Avs, he’s probably
better off staying put.
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Erik
Johnson, Minnesota (Draft eligible)
This is a first, trying to assess the
future of an undrafted player who has yet to play
a college game. But Johnson is a rarity. The consensus
top pick in June’s entry draft, most scouts
believe he can step into an NHL lineup immediately.
If the prevailing sentiment plays out, he’d
end up property of the St. Louis Blues, a woeful team
with a decent defensive corps – Christian Backman,
Barrett Jackman, Dennis Wideman and Jeff Woywitka
are all 25 or younger, and the team isn’t likely
to dump veteran Eric Brewer. There’s still room
for Johnson, but he seems generally interested in
giving the college game a try for at least one season.
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Jack
Johnson, Michigan (Carolina Hurricanes)
Johnson was lambasted in a Hockey
News editorial earlier this month for turning
down Carolina‘s offer to step into the ’Canes’
lineup for the tail end of the regular season and
the Stanley Cup playoffs. Is he nuts for passing on
what might have been his best chance to win the Cup?
Maybe, but The Hockey News and other critics
fail to address one scenario: that Johnson is enjoying
himself in Ann Arbor. Carolina will certainly try
to sign him prior to the start of next season and
once Johnson decides to turn pro, he won’t spend
one second in the minors. Regardless of which way
he decides to go – and you’d have to give
coming back for his sophomore season the edge at this
point in time – Johnson seems to be holding
all the cards.
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Phil
Kessel, Minnesota (Draft eligible)
Even though he’s no longer considered
the automatic No. 1 pick in June’s draft, Kessel
had a fine freshman season in light of the outlandish
expectations that preceded him to Minnesota. He’ll
be one of the first five players chosen. He’ll
get a max deal whenever he opts to sign a pro contract.
And he’ll step right into the NHL when that
happens. Kessel’s dilemma may be this: does
he want to be the focal point of the Gopher offense
next season with Minnesota fans will scrutinizing
his every shift? If the team falters, he becomes the
whipping boy. Or does he end up playing in, say, Washington,
where he could enjoy the relative anonymity of being
a Capital in D.C. and setting up Alexander Ovechkin
for a 150-goal season?
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Brian
Lee, North Dakota (Ottawa Senators)
When Ottawa selected Lee ninth overall
in last year’s draft, Senators general manager
John Muckler said he expected the Moorhead, Minn.,
native to be one of the team’s top four defensemen
by the 2007-08 season. That plan may be accelerated
depending on what happens to blueliners Zdeno Chara
and Wade Redden, both of whom are unrestricted free
agents after the season. It’s highly unlikely
the Sens will be able to keep both in the fold given
the market for 29-year-old No. 1 defensemen able to
play 25+ minutes a night. If both Chara and Redden
bolt, the urgency to get Lee into the fold grows.
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Jonathan
Matsumoto, Bowling Green (Draft eligible)
Though Matsumoto is a proven scorer
(82 points in 78 games over two seasons with the Falcons),
he’s not all that highly regarded by the NHL’s
Central Scouting Service, which ranks him 117th among
the 210 North American skaters listed in its final
pre-draft ratings. As a mid- to late-round pick, it’s
unlikely that the team that selects him would place
a high priority on signing him. From a financial perspective,
Matsumoto may be best served by not getting drafted,
putting up another 20-goal, 50-point season at BGSU
in 2006-07, then testing the free agent market next
spring.
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Drew
Miller, Michigan State (Anaheim Ducks)
With Kunitz, Perry, Getzlaf and Penner,
the no-longer-mighty Ducks have a wealth of young
talent up front. As those guys solidify NHL jobs,
however, it creates vacancies at the AHL level, and
Miller could be seen as an ideal fit. His brother,
Ryan, left early and was stuck in the minors thanks
to a logjam of talent ahead of him.
UPDATE, May 3: Another
of East Lansing's favorite sons leaves early, as Miller
has signed with the Ducks and will forgo his senior
season with the Spartans.
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Matt
Niskanen, Minnesota Duluth (Dallas Stars)
Niskanen is very highly regarded for
his pro potential, and after a frustrating season
in Duluth (on a team level, at least), he might be
eager to get started on the next stage of his career.
Just a year out of high school hockey, he’s
not ready for the NHL, but he could join former Bulldog
Junior Lessard in the Stars’ system and hear
tales of happier times at the DECC.
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T.J.
Oshie, North Dakota (St. Louis Blues)
Oshie’s selection in the first
round last summer raised eyebrows, but then he elevated
his game. He was a force as a freshman, when most
assumed he’d be playing junior hockey. Who’s
to say he couldn’t also make the jump to the
pros earlier than expected? St. Louis, with plenty
of room to improve, has a new ownership group that
will get to make the call on Oshie's immediate future.
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Scott
Parse, Nebraska-Omaha (Los Angeles Kings)
Breaking up is hard to do, and you can’t
blame Parse if he gazes longingly to the west after
Bill Thomas’ departure. He may not have been
checking out Thomas’ debut with the Phoenix
Coyotes, but rather the Los Angeles general manager
situation. New GM Dean Lombardi’s take on the
talented Mavericks’ center should determine
whether he joins Thomas in the pro hockey ranks.
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Joe
Pavelski, Wisconsin (San Jose Sharks)
Few organizations have mined the college
ranks as successfully as San Jose, which boasts defensemen
Tom Preissing (Colorado College) and Matt Carle (Denver)
on its top two power-play units. The Sharks may not
rush Pavelski out – they were patient with those
two – but his all-around game is remarkably
polished for a college sophomore.
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Sasha
Pokulok, Cornell (Washington Capitals)
The Caps used the 14th pick in last
year’s draft to select Pokulok, whose development
seemed to stagnate during his sophomore campaign.
Washington certainly doesn’t need to get any
younger – the team’s off-season focus
will likely center around adding veterans to its lineup.
That said, the organization may feel that it can better
facilitate Pokulok’s growth into a future top-four
defenseman by signing him and monitoring his progress
in the American Hockey League.
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Cory
Schneider, Boston College (Vancouver Canucks)
Given its goaltending – ahem –
situation, it’s remarkable that the Canucks
didn’t kidnap Schneider while he was in town
for the World Junior Championship. They can probably
lure him back with a hefty signing bonus and the opportunity
to make NHL money right away.
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Drew
Stafford, North Dakota (Buffalo Sabres)
Nine of Stafford’s fellow 2004
first rounders made their NHL debuts this year, and
watching him, it’s hard to believe he’s
far from joining them. He will get a chance to showcase
his skills at that level (or at least close to it)
when he plays for Mike Eaves in May at the IIHF World
Championship. Stafford seems to fit perfectly in Buffalo’s
model of fleet-footed, skilled forwards.
UPDATE, May 3: Stafford
is in Europe, but has already signed a deal with Buffalo,
becoming the third North Dakota player to leave early
this offseason.
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Paul
Stastny, Denver (Colorado Avalanche)
The 2004 championship game was Stastny’s
coming out party – now the Pioneers hope he
helps them take another run at a title, rather than
coming out for good. His older brother, Yan, is in
The Show after leaving Notre Dame early, and after
winning the WCHA scoring title, Paul may be ready
for the drive across town to join the Avs.
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Jonathan
Toews, North Dakota (Draft eligible)
Toews tells North Dakota that he’s
not going anywhere, but that’s easy to say when
there’s nowhere to go. Once he’s a top-five
draft pick he’ll have an attractive option,
although he may be surrounded by more pure talent
on the Sioux’s front line than he would with
a minor league team of an NHL bottom feeder.
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