UPDATED: August 17, 2006
INCH Flight Risks: The Second Leg
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Phil
Kessel signed a multi-year contract with the Boston Bruins
in August. |
Anyone with hopes that the NHL's new collective
bargaining agreement would lead to fewer early departures
from the college ranks got a rude awakening as 16 underclassmen
made the
jump to pro hockey before Memorial Day.
Now that the 2006 NHL Entry Draft is history
and the league's salary cap for the upcoming season has been
established, that number could climb. All in all, the next
two months leading up to the start of pro training camps may
be an anxious time for players considering the leap to pro
hockey, and perhaps even moreso for the coaches who would
have to fill their shoes if they depart.
With that in mind, Inside College Hockey takes
a refocused look – call it version 2.0, as its been
reshuffled to take into account the draft, the salary cap
increase and the free agency situations of a number of NHL
clubs – at a collection of players (and one coach) who
are potential Flight Risks:
Player,
School (NHL Rights)
The
Skinny |
Mike
Eaves, Wisconsin
With every NHL coaching vacancy filled
as of June 29, when the Bruins hired Dave Lewis, Badger
fans can likely breathe a sign of relief for at least
one more season. Still, there are a few people who
feel Eaves is the best coach not in the NHL. His strong
showing behind the U.S. bench with a largely unheralded
cast at May's IIHF World Championships is another
bullet point on the resume. Eaves says he's happy
in Madison, but the allure of winning a Stanley Cup
and (perhaps) coaching the 2010 U.S. Olympic hockey
team might be too strong to ignore.
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Brian
Boyle, Boston College (Los Angeles Kings)
This spring, Boyle said he was returning
to the Heights for his senior year. But that was before
the Kings hired Dean Lombardi to serve as president
and general manager. It’s clear the Kings will
retool around younger players like Alexander Frolov
and former Michigan standout Mike Cammalleri –
witness the draft-day trade that sent Pavol Demitra
to Minnesota for Patrick O' Sullivan. Expect the Kings
to make another run at signing Boyle and giving him
the chance to stick with the big club immediately.
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Andrew
Cogliano, Michigan (Edmonton Oilers)
Cogliano had a good – not great
– freshman season with the Wolverines, scoring
12 goals and adding 16 assists in 39 games, so it
seems natural for him to spend another year in Ann
Arbor. Even though the defending Western Conference
champions have a number of key forwards eligible for
unrestricted free agency (Radek Dvorak, Mike Peca,
Fernando Pisani and Sergei Samsonov among them), Cogliano
is still a year or two away from competing for a spot
on the Edmonton roster.
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Brian
Elliott, Wisconsin (Ottawa Senators)
The Senators don’t need to rush
a goaltender to the NHL level – 23-year-old
Ray Emery seems ready to take the reins from Dominik
Hasek, who may or may not be back as an unrestricted
free agent. Elliott has said the right things about
coming back, but he doesn’t have anything to
prove at the college level, and goalies almost always
need a year or two of AHL seasoning. A change of heart
wouldn’t be a shock.
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Alex
Goligoski, Minnesota (Pittsburgh Penguins)
A proven scorer, Goligoski scored 39
points last season after putting up 20 points during
his freshman campaign. If there’s one squad
that isn’t looking to get any younger, however,
it’s Pittsburgh. Ex-collegians Brooks Orpik
and Ryan Whitney played significant minutes for the
Pens this season, and former Harvard standout Noah
Welch will likely make the leap to the parent club
in 2006-07. Gopher fans should have Goligoski to cheer
for at least one more season.
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T.J.
Hensick, Michigan (Colorado Avalanche)
Hensick’s immediate future has
less to do with his pro prospects as much as it does
the Avalanche organization. The Avs share an American
Hockey League affiliate with the Carolina Hurricanes,
which makes player development a dicey proposition
– just ask Edmonton about its sometimes frosty
partnership with Montreal in Hamilton, Ontario. Unless
the Avs brass believes Hensick can grab a roster spot
with the big club, he’s probably better off
staying put.
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Erik
Johnson, Minnesota (St. Louis Blues)
The consensus among NHL scouts is that
Johnson is a better player than Chris Pronger when
he was an 18-year-old. That said, Bob McKenzie of
Canadian sports network TSN makes a great point –
the Blues are in the midst of an ownership change
and the upheaval that accompanies it, and they're
not going to compete for the Stanley Cup this year.
Do you bring Johnson in for a chaotic first year under
the new regime, or wait and let that seven-year unrestricted
free agency clock start ticking a year later? Johnson
is good enough to make the jump, but it may be in
his best interest – and that of the Blues –
to give the college game a try for at least one season.
UPDATE (July 7): Johnson
and the Blues agreed that it was his best interest
in going to Minnesota and trying to get to St. Louis
by April – for the Frozen Four.
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Jack
Johnson, Michigan (Carolina Hurricanes)
It's hard to imagine a situation more
curious than this one. A source told INCH that Carolina
brass was steamed that Johnson twice rebuffed the
team's efforts to sign him even though he would've
walked into the 'Canes lineup immediately. In hindsight,
Johnson might regret not bolting Ann Arbor for a chance
to get his name on the Stanley Cup – Glen Wesley
may have a thing or two to say about seizing opportunity
– but he seems OK with returning to the Wolverines
for another year. The 'Canes will certainly try to
sign Johnson prior to the start of next season, especially
considering four of the team's top six defensemen
are unrestricted free agents.
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Phil
Kessel, Minnesota (Boston Bruins)
SIGNED with Boston (August
17): It's been a tumultuous off-season
in the Hub of Hockey. New general manager, new coach,
no more Harry Sinden and an influx of new players,
the latest being Kessel, the team's first-round pick
in June's NHL Draft. Given the fact that Phil the
Thrill has been skating in the spotlight for the better
part of two years, he may prefer playing in relative
anonymity alongside the likes of fellow B's newbies
Zdeno Chara and Marc Savard. It's likely Kessel will
find a home on one of the team's top two lines, perhaps
alongside veterans Savard and Glen Murray.
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Brian
Lee, North Dakota (Ottawa Senators)
When Ottawa selected Lee ninth overall
in the 2005 draft, Senators general manager John Muckler
said he expected the Moorhead, Minn., native to be
one of the team’s top four defensemen by the
2007-08 season. That plan may be accelerated depending
on what happens to blueliners Zdeno Chara and Wade
Redden, both of whom are unrestricted free agents
after the season. Assuming the Sens hang on to at
least one of that pair and resign UFA Brian Pothier,
they'll have six quality defensemen (Chara or Redden,
Pothier, Andrej Meszaros, Chris Phillips, Anton Volchenkov
and Christopher Schubert) in the fold. Expect Lee
to stay put.
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Jonathan
Matsumoto, Bowling Green (Philadelphia)
Matsumoto is a proven scorer (82 points
in 78 games over two seasons with the Falcons) and
though he's not likely to don a Flyers sweater in
2006-07, it's a distinct possibility that he could
sign and earn a spot with the Philadelphia Phantoms,
the AHL affiliate. Most of the team's younger forwards
debuted with the Broad Street Bullies last season
– former Ohio State standout R.J. Umberger among
them – so there are certainly holes to fill
in the system. It wouldn't be a shock to see him depart.
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Drew
Miller, Michigan State (Anaheim Ducks)
SIGNED with Anaheim (May
3): With Getzlaf, Kunitz, Lupul, Perry
and Penner, the no-longer-mighty Ducks have a wealth
of young talent up front (as evidenced by the team's
showing in this year's NHL playoffs). That influx
of youth, however, creates vacancies at the AHL level.
Miller, who proved to be one of the college game's
top two-way players, played in one playoff game with
the Portland Pirates, but was injured and missed the
remainder of the postseason.
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Matt
Niskanen, Minnesota Duluth (Dallas Stars)
Niskanen is very highly regarded for
his pro potential and after a frustrating season in
Duluth (on a team level, at least), he might be eager
to get started on the next stage of his career. Just
a year out of high school hockey, he’s not ready
for the NHL. But the Stars' defensemen (Sergei Zubov,
Phillipe Boucher, Jon Klemm and the recently acquired
Jaroslav Modry) are getting long in the tooth, so
the team may want Niskanen to continue his development
under its watchful eye with its AHL team in Iowa.
Our hunch is that he stays in the Twin Ports for his
sophomore season.
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T.J.
Oshie, North Dakota (St. Louis Blues)
Oshie’s selection in the first
round last summer raised eyebrows, but then he elevated
his game. He was a force as a freshman, when most
assumed he’d be playing junior hockey. Who’s
to say he couldn’t also make the jump to the
pros earlier than expected? St. Louis has a new ownership
group that will get to make the call on Oshie's immediate
future, but the longer the team drifts in uncertainty
(will there be a new general manager or a coach?),
the less likely it is that Oshie bolts for the Blues.
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Scott
Parse, Nebraska-Omaha (Los Angeles Kings)
Breaking up is hard to do, and you can’t
blame Parse if he gazes longingly to the west after
Bill Thomas’ departure. He may not have been
checking out Thomas’ debut with the Phoenix
Coyotes, but rather the Los Angeles general manager
situation. New GM Dean Lombardi’s take on the
talented Mavericks’ center should determine
whether he joins Thomas in the pro hockey ranks.
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Jordan
Parise, North Dakota (free agent)
SIGNED with New Jersey (July
6) : Parise, North Dakota's career leader
in goals against average (2.14) and save percentage
(.921), gave up his final season of collegiate eligibility
by signing a two-year contract with New Jersey. The
move reunites Jordan with his younger brother, Zach,
a first-round Devils draft pick in 2003 who scored
14 goals and 18 assists as an NHL rookie last season.
Jordan, who compiled a 55-20-7 career record with
the Fighting Sioux and helped the team to consecutive
Frozen Four trips in 2005 and 2006, will likely start
his professional career with New Jersey's American
Hockey League affiliate in Lowell.
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Joe
Pavelski, Wisconsin (San Jose Sharks)
Few organizations have mined the college
ranks as successfully as San Jose, which boasts defenseman
Matt Carle (Denver) on its top power-play units and
found forward Patrick Rissmiller at Holy Cross. The
Sharks may not rush Pavelski out because they're fairly
well stocked up front, but his all-around game is
remarkably polished for a college sophomore. Also,
Pavelski turned 22 on July 11 and he may be ready
to embark on the next stage of his career.
Update (July 11): A
source close to Pavelski told INCH that the Badger
forward signed with San Jose, though no official announcement
has been made. Wisconsin coach Mike Eaves told the
Wisconsin State Journal earlier this week
he expects Pavelski to bolt.
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Sasha
Pokulok, Cornell (Washington Capitals)
SIGNED with Washington (July
6): The hulking (6-5, 230) Pokulok agreed
to contract terms with Washington, which chose him
with the 14th overall pick in the 2005 NHL Draft.
In two seasons at Cornell, the native of Vaudreuil-Dorion,
Quebec, scored seven goals and added 16 assists in
23 career games. He was a member of the Canadian team
that won the gold medal at the 2006 World Junior Championship
in Vancouver, B.C. Polulok, who's expected to begin
his pro career with the Capitals' American Hockey
League affiliate in Hershey, is the second Cornell
player this off-season to leave school early –
junior goaltender David McKee signed as a free agent
with Anaheim in March.
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Brian
Salcido, Colorado College (Anaheim Ducks)
SIGNED with Anaheim (Aug.
2): We didn't initially have Salcido
on either of our Flight Risks lists, but perhaps we
should have known better. He becomes the fourth player
to leave early and sign with Anaheim this summer (joining
Ryan Carter, Dave McKee and Drew Miller) and joins
his hometown team just in time to avoid what shapes
up as a real rebuilding year in Colorado Springs.
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Cory
Schneider, Boston College (Vancouver Canucks)
My, how this situation has changed since
the end of the NHL regular season. Acquiring Roberto
Luongo from Florida certainly solidifies the outlook
in goal – especially since the Canucks have
inked him to a four-year deal. Vancouver could sign
Schneider and hand him the starting job with the team's
AHL affiliate in Manitoba, if it feels Mika Noronen
or Maxime Ouellet is a capable backup to Luongo. However,
the Canucks might sign a veteran free agent to spell
Luongo and stand pat with Noronen and Ouellet, or
one of those two and a seasoned pro in the Wade Flaherty
mode to hold the fort in Winnipeg for one more season.
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Drew
Stafford, North Dakota (Buffalo Sabres)
SIGNED with Buffalo (May
3): Stafford seems to fit perfectly
in Buffalo’s model of fleet-footed, skilled
forwards. That's good, because the Sabres have a league-high
17 restricted free agents, some of whom – Daniel
Briere, Tim Connolly, Toni Lydman and Ryan Miller
– will be seeking hefty raises from last year.
Even though general manager Darcy Regier has the right
to match any offer made to an RFA and has stated he'll
keep the entire lot in the fold, it's unlikely he'll
be able to hang onto all of them for long. Stafford
should find an opening with the big club in due time.
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Paul
Stastny, Denver (Colorado Avalanche)
The 2004 championship game was Stastny’s
coming out party – now the Pioneers hope he
helps them take another run at a title rather than
coming out for good. After winning the WCHA scoring
title, Paul may be ready for the drive up I-25 to
join the Avs. That said, Colorado's lineup returns
virtually intact, save for rookie Wojtek Wolski replacing
the recently traded Alex Tanguay. The team's minor
leauge ranks are pretty thin, but the Avs share an
AHL affiliation with Carolina, so stocking a farm
club isn't a necessity.
UPDATE: Stastny signed July
24, joining Matt Carle as Pioneers to leave early
this offseason.
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Jonathan
Toews, North Dakota (Chicago Blackhawks)
Toews tells North Dakota that he’s
not going anywhere, which is ironic, because neither
are the Blackhawks. Because he's so big and so smart,
it's easy to forget that he just turned 18 in late
April. The Erik Johnson Theory may apply in Toews'
case as well – since the 'Hawks are a long way
from respectability, the team may be better off letting
him stay with the Sioux, which keeps the clock that
counts down the time to unrestricted free agency frozen
for another year. Of course, that would make sense,
so expect Chicago to do the opposite.
UPDATE: Toews has confirmed
that he will be back for his sophomore season, turning
down a contract offer from the 'Hawks.
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